The political temperature in Penang went up by a few notches since the announcement made by DAP that the party intends to make the state its frontline battle ground in the next general elections. The presence of several top personalities such as Umno president and prime minister Abdullah Badawi, incoming Gerakan president and chief minister Dr Koh Tsu Koon, DAP secretary general Lim Guan Eng and possibly Keadilan’s advisor Anwar Ibrahim (eligible to contest after April 2008) would ensure an explosive contestations in Penang.
The opposition parties are buoyed by a number of national issues facing the Barisan Nasional (BN) e.g. rising cost of living, higher petrol price, unfair privatisation concession agreements, perceived racism in public policies, unscrupulous racist politicking and some controversies which implicated a few of its top leaders.
The opposition parties hope that these national issues combined with several local issues will translate into better support for them in Penang. Are the voters in Penang affected by these issues?
Voting PatternThe actual situation may turn out to be more complicated than the oppositions had expected. Penang voters are a sophisticated lot. They have shown their pragmatism in the last few general elections. Generally, the voting pattern in Penang is quite similar with the pattern nationally. Most of them had voted for stability, reliability and economic development in the past.
When the economy is performing well, it is highly likely that the voters will vote overwhelmingly in support of the BN. However, they were pragmatic enough to keep a reasonable representation of opposition members in the parliament. DAP had won at least three parliamentary seats in the past. Split voting is a hallmark of the voters here. This way, they can be assured of a strong state government which can fulfil their socio-economic needs and a reasonable check-and-balance in the parliament. At the height of the BN support in 2004, the oppositions still won a respectable five parliament seats.
The voters’ perception of stability is very crucial to the oppositions. In the 1995, 1999 and 2004 general elections, the oppositions barely won a token number of seats in the state assembly. DAP, in particular, was a spent force after three gruelling Tanjong projects which failed to wrest the state power from BN.
In 1998, the Anwar factor was largely seen as a Malay political struggle. The ‘reformasi’ fever failed to reverse the oppositions’ fortune in the 1999 general elections. Instead, two of DAP top guns – Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh - were defeated in the parliamentary contests for the party’s association with the pan-Islamic party, PAS. DAP’s hope of coat tailing the ‘reformasi’ wave backfired because voters were wary of PAS Islamic state ambition and a possible political instability should the oppositions managed to come into power. It is obvious that the oppositions cannot depend on issues alone to win them the state.
It was proven previously that the voters can be affected by other equally important factors such as their fear of overt Islamism and racism, and the quality of leadership. In the 1990 general elections, the voters’ sentiment were badly affected by the aftermath of the 1987 ‘Operasi Lalang’ which saw the detention of several political leaders, civil rights activists, Chinese academicians and Chinese community leaders over the Chinese vernacular school issue. DAP was the biggest beneficiary. In contrast, all MCA candidates were defeated due to the perceived inability of the party to defend the rights of the Chinese community. Gerakan, largely seen as a counter balance to MCA in BN, retained eight of their seats.
The abatement of negative racist sentiment towards the Chinese community and a better economic condition helped BN to win back most of its support at the 1995 general elections. Nevertheless, there are several events which hinted at a possible re-enactment of the negative racist sentiment felt in 1990.
At a UMNO division meeting, deputy youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin warned that the non-Malays, while making a subtle reference to Suqiu, may take advantage of UMNO’s weakness to demand for more rights. Subsequently, he said that the Malays in Penang are marginalised and neglected by the non-UMNO led government. Khairy was alleged as the master mind behind the motions passed at several UMNO divisions calling for the post of chief minister to be rotated and a banner protest against Penang chief minister Dr Koh Tsu Koon when the latter attended a UMNO event.
The revival of the NEP as a policy instrument to promote UMNO’s Malay agenda has created a discontent amongst the Chinese groups and associations in Penang. They have met up with politicians from both the MCA and Gerakan to voice out their concern that the NEP may drive away fresh foreign investment to other destinations and further erode the confidence of domestic investors in Penang. Although the state recorded a high total capital investment in 2005, its domestic investment has recorded a sharp decrease of almost 26 percent from 2004.
Furthermore, the Asli CPPS report suggested that the Bumiputera corporate equity had reached 45 percent and surpassed the NEP target of 30 percent. Several governmental ministries have since came out with different set of statistics to quash the suggestion. While the government’s credibility may be affected due to its own inconsistency, the main concern of the business community is Penang’s standing as an investment and industrial hub in the region. Without the NEP, the state is already facing fierce competition from China, Vietnam and Thailand.
The 2006 UMNO general assembly marked the climax of racist rhetoric and remarks made by several of its second echelon leaders. Its youth chief Hishammudin Hussein’s insistence to unsheathe his ‘keris’ at the party’s general assemblies has become a symbol of communalism and political aggression. The manner in which these UMNO leaders were left off the hook after making several seditious remarks may have a negative electoral impact on its coalition partners, especially MCA and Gerakan. Both parties are being perceived as meek and unequal partners to UMNO.
Since independence, Penang is seen as an icon of BN power sharing model in Malaysia. Some emerging trends suggested that there maybe some pressure on this position. Lately, its non-Malay state leadership is perceived as weak and ineffectual largely due to its inability to control the Malay dominated civil service and the state departments. Although both MCA and Gerakan have better numerical advantage over UMNO in the state assembly, the tight federal control over its finances and economic direction has made it virtually impossible for the state to chart its own path without the supervision of UMNO.
Second, the changing demographics in Penang will make it harder for a minority ethnic group to lead the state government. Malay community made up of 41 percent of the total population while the Chinese community is still the largest at 43 percent. The number is expected to reverse in the next 3-5 years, with the Malay community forming the majority. The heat is already being felt especially in the last few years with several UMNO divisions in the state calling for a rotation of the top position.
Several crucial state departments, local authorities and state controlled companies are already seeing a major involvement of the Malays. The proponents of Malay agenda in UMNO will not stop short of having all states in Malaysia eventually coming under the control of the Malay leadership. Although Kelantan is controlled by PAS since 1990, it is still seen as a Muslim-Malay government.
Political Strategy
DAP is expected to use these two issues as their main campaign focus. First, the party may capitalise on the perceived weak state leadership lead by Gerakan to promote a stronger state government which is capable of charting its own socio-economic direction. Its ability to stand up to UMNO would be the main selling point.
Since economy is the main issue in Penang, the party would have to convince the voters that it is able to reenergise and accelerate the state economy to its previous pole position in the country. Today, Penang’s income per capita and its ability to attract investment lagged behind both Selangor and Kuala Lumpur.
On this note, the DAP faces several internal challenges. First, the party cannot focus on problems and issues alone if it aspires to become a ruling party. It must be able to present viable and fresh strategy and action plans to solidify its intention. To do so, the party must demonstrate its knowledge of the state economy, its challenges and issues and its ability to propose a way forward.
Second, voters in the state gravitate towards a strong and reliable leadership. Its previous chief minister, Dr Lim Chong Eu, had provided a firm leadership to lead Penang out of its economic slump into an industrial powerhouse in less than two decades. Under Dr Koh Tsu Koon, Penang’s economic growth has consistently outperformed the national average. Under his stewardship, Penang is progressing but perhaps not as fast as other competitors within the country and overseas which are striding at break neck speed.
Despite announcing its aspiration for state power, DAP is not yet firm on who will lead its campaign in Penang. Several observers remarked that anything short of its top leader, DAP secretary general Lim Guan Eng, its intention will not be taken seriously. Even then, Lim would need some time to cultivate his support base and to build up the party’s machinery in the state.
Another dilemma DAP faces is an apparent lack of good home grown candidates in Penang. In the past, the ‘outsider’ label used against several personalities had proven to be effective especially when it comes to holding the top position in Penang. Since 1999, after the devastating defeat of Lim Kit Siang in the general elections, DAP Penang is a spent force. It survives merely on the pragmatism of the voters and the individual popularity of some of its leaders.
Third, its collaboration with Keadilan is limited only to Anwar Ibrahim. Since his release from prison, Anwar’s contribution to domestic politics especially Penang is limited to his few political statements most notably his stand on the NEP. Apart from that, it is not certain how Anwar can contribute positively towards DAP’s campaign in Penang. He is not even certain of making a return to Permatang Pauh. Moreover, several Chinese leaders in Keadilan are not on good terms with the party over seat negotiations in the 1999 and 2004 general elections.
In reality, both DAP and Keadilan need their partnership to work. But is Anwar comfortable of playing second fiddle in Penang? Out of the 40 state seats, 14 seats have a clear Chinese majority and 10 seats with a clear Malay majority. In 9 other seats, the Chinese forms a simple majority and the Malay holds a slight majority in 5 other seats. There are two mixed seats. Indian voters feature prominently in all seats ranging from 4.2 percent to 22.8 percent of the total voters.
In the last few general elections, the Indian voters were the staunchest BN supporters. It is not known if the recent spate of cases involving demolition of Indian temples and the worsening socio-economic condition of the community do have any impact on their support towards BN. To win, a party or a coalition must win at least 21 seats and has a broad appeal to all races in the state.
Another battle cry for the DAP is the possibility of Penang coming under the leadership of UMNO within the next two general elections and the party’s intention to avert this possibility. This is a double edged sword. While the battle cry may rally more Chinese voters to support the party, its campaign tagline may draw away Malay support from the party and its alliance. This is where its liaison with Anwar Ibrahim can be crucial. Can Anwar persuade the Malay voters to shed their Malay supremacist mind set for a Malaysian first one? This will be an arduous task especially in a pro-UMNO state and the home base of the current prime minister.
Tension BuildingWhile the opposition parties are still far from getting their act together, tensions are brewing within the BN component parties in Penang. Both MCA and Gerakan would need to convince the Chinese voters that they are not submissive to UMNO and when a need arises they would be able to stand up against any unreasonable demands from UMNO leaders. The next important challenge would be to deliver adequate economic and job opportunities to the people.
Several local issues such as the frustrating public transport system, the inefficient and fallible local authorities, increase inter-ethnic frictions, higher income disparity and dislocation of the poor from the expensive island housing areas would have to be addressed before the next general elections. Over the last decade, the mushrooming of expensive and high-end condominiums on premium lands has created a sense of unhappiness amongst the lower income groups. As a result, many of them can ill afford to live on the island and many have moved out of the city centre and economic zones. Poor intra-state connectivity due to a fractious public bus transport system has made it extremely difficult for the lower income groups to commute to work at the city centre and economic zones.
At the party level, the MCA has been playing second fiddle since 1990 when comes to addressing the Chinese community affairs in the state. After its last chairman, Dr Sak Cheng Lum, the state leadership has endured endless factional power struggle. At present, the state leadership is headed temporarily by its national deputy president Chan Kong Choy. Most of its incumbents have held their seats since 1995 and will be facing their fourth term if most of them were retained. Similarly, the party is affected by a number of national issues discussed. A significant issue faced by the party is the sale of Nanyang Siang Pau to Tiong Hiew King which may reopen the team A and team B friction.
At the national level, Gerakan’s leadership transition appeared to be smooth sailing but its transition in Penang does have some heavy undercurrents. While the party has identified several notable replacements for Dr Koh Tsu Koon should he moves to the federal level, most Penangites are left in the dark on his probable successor. This has led to many unhealthy speculations and a deep uncertainty. Moreover, Koh will be leading the party into the next general elections as an acting president since his party would probably postpone its party election until after the general elections.
The imminent retirement of Gerakan’s iconic leaders such as current president Dr Lim Keng Yaik and Penang state exco Dr Toh Kin Woon is another blow to the party. Both of them may aid in the campaign but Dr Koh should be given the full confidence to lead his party into the next general elections. It will be an opportunity for Dr Koh to stamp his leadership control over the party as its new president and to mark his grand return to federal politics since 1986. As such, whoever the party and Dr Koh nominate to replace him in Penang would be a crucial decision in view of the sure fire contestations in the next general elections.
Summary
From this analysis, it is obvious that despite several nail biting issues confronting the state none of the opposing political parties have a clear advantage over the other. While the BN parties have an advantage in incumbency and the experience to govern the state, it will go into the next election with perhaps the most hostile sentiment since 1990. It is near impossible for BN to repeat its level of support in 2004.
For the oppositions, they should be realistic with their own chances. A strong political support base cannot be build overnight or even within a year. Their best chance would be to depend on the charisma of several leaders and an opportunity to introduce capable, young and energetic new faces in the next general elections.
Whatever the outcome, the winners must be the people of Penang. The next state government must be able to address several teething problems faced by the people and to ensure that socio-economic equality and justice prevails. Whether Penang can reclaim its past glory, the decision ultimately resides in the hands of the people.
