Get Ready For More Politics

Dr Chua Soi Lek resigned as deputy president of MCA today, while seven of his supporters in the central committee will also quit, in a move that will pave the way for fresh party polls. The total of 21 resignations, or two-thirds of the central committee, will now be enough under the MCA Constitution to trigger new elections which must be held within a month.

President Ong Tee Keat has confirmed that fresh elections must be held within a month. Ong's position has been weakened following a no-confidence vote against his leadership at the EGM triggered by Dr Chua Soi Lek. Ong, who lost the support of MCA delegates, has lost his control over the Central Committee too.

He is expected to face an uphill battle to retain the presidency. However, Ong's support is still crucial for any presidential aspirant if he decided not to defend his post.

It was rumoured that Dr Chua had met up with PM Najib before announcing his resignation at the party's HQ. Ironically, it was Chua who had told the MCA delegates to focus on the next general election instead of fresh party elections.

It is widely perceived that the current MCA leadership needs to seek a new mandate and legitimacy from the members. Without a new mandate, the leadership might not be able to face its grassroots.

Chua's resignation can be seen a step taken to prepare the Barisan war machinery for the 13th general election.

This is probably the best period to hold a new general election. There are several reasons which work against the Pakatan:

1) The coalition is jolted with several resignations from its MPs. It creates a bad perception for Pakatan. Those who had voted for these candidates might be disappointed with the resignations. The power grab is Perak is a classic example. While many Perakians are angry of Barisan's power grab, probably as many are disappointed with Pakatan's failure to pick reliable candidates. Unreliability creates bad perception and poor credibility.

2) Anwar's sodomy case. If a general election is being called during an ongoing trial, it may distract Anwar from participating and campaigning in the general election. Anwar is still the most suitable leader to lead the coalition. Despite his error of judgement, Anwar's leadership is irreplaceable.

3) Pakatan's manufactured conflicts in Selangor and Penang are detrimental to its leadership of the states. Although Penang Pakatan is probably the more solid of the two, it may not register an easy win in the next general election. Barisan would want to capitalize on Pakatan instability to strike.

4) Barisan is working extra time to stabilize its coalition by healing rifts within its component parties. A new MCA leadership should be able to stabilize the party within 6 months after party elections. A stable MCA is important for Barisan to reduce its loss of Chinese community support.

5) Barisan needs to call for a general election before the implementation of GST. The implementation is expected to create enough issues for Pakatan to capitalize on them politically. Its decision to scrap the tiered fuel subsidy is another indication that the federal government is trying to reduce new controversies before the next polls.

6) The formation of a Malay Consultative Council is expected to help Barisan win back some lost Malay votes. Pakatan's position on the use of 'Allah' by non-Muslims is going to cost the coalition some Malay support. If this trend persists, the next general election will be even more polarised that the previous ones.

We should expect more politicking over the next 6 to 9 months. Both coalitions are expected to gear up preparations for the next general election. The country's economy is going back on an auto pilot again.

Till the dust settles, we are not able to count our collateral damage. The period after the 13th general election will determine if brain drain from Malaysia will intensify.