Sunday, April 25, 2010

Hulu Selangor By-Election & Malaysian Mentality

Many analysts and observers claimed that the Hulu Selangor by-election is a referendum on Najib's administration. It is also a test board on the performance of Pakatan Selangor under the leadership of Khalid Ibrahim.

Najib has gone on the offensive with his strings of PR efforts hoping to convince mostly non-Malay voters of his new vision - New Economy Model. Barisan leaders and the coalition friendly media agencies have played up Najib's vision and policies. The sad part is this country will not get better merely through visions and policy announcements but lacking in actual implementation.

Najib had announced numerous big sounding initiatives e.g. the Government Transformation Plan, New Economy Model, 1Malaysia and several others. He had formed a number of committees and work groups. His most controversial decision was to appoint APCO as his government's international PR consultants.

What is lacking is a report card. His administration is facing a tremendous challenge to provide full details of his reform pledges. Hence, the claims of Najib's gaining popularity over these announcements is weird and worrying.

Why so? First, are Malaysians so gullible? Malaysians should be focusing more on the results than announcements. However, slogans have proven to be very marketable in Malaysia.

On the flip side, Pakatan led state governments have been less than innovative and fresh with their governance approach. Pakatan Selangor under the leadership of Khalid Ibrahim is seen as lack of dynamism and new ideas. There is also a serious concern over the support he gets from his own party.

The outcome of Hulu Selangor by-election should provide some lessons for Pakatan. They, especially PKR, need to be more careful with their membership recruitment process, candidate selection mechanism and leadership promotion within the party. Pakatan states cannot merely depend on the misdeeds of Barisan to win elections.

Barisan's excesses are already well known but the opposition coalition must capture the people's confidence that they are able to hold the leadership mantle if given an opportunity to do. Good riddance to PKR because the defectors are mostly from leaders and members with dubious record and low credibility.

Pakatan needs to show how they can govern differently.

It may not be a bad thing if Pakatan losses this by-election. It should not stay complacent and just hope for Barisan's poor perception to win elections.

Pakatan must win over some Barisan's hard core supporters if it wants to form the next federal government.

Hulu Selangor is a also a test of Malaysian mentality. If voters in Hulu Selangor are not committed on reforms, then there is still a long way for this country to become a fully developed country. Race, social morality and developmental politics are key to the HS election.

Power corrupts and should not be perpetuated in any democracies. We need at least a change of government but can Pakatan delivers us more hope and trust?

16 comments:

TOKZ said...

Hi all,

This is a EXTRA MILE of effort I'm bring for everyone here before the RESULTS are OUT tonite.

"I PREDICT BN to win by 500-1500 votes"

Why??? My analysis are as followed:

During the last election, many members in the BN coalition who are voters in Hulu Selangor was rather UPSET with the previous administration headed by PAK LAH. Many of these voters of whom by-right should have translated their votes to BN actually DIDN'T come out to vote. For those BN coalition members/voters in Hulu Selangor who had exercised their voting rights actually SPOIL their VOTES or voted for the Opposition.

If we look back to the last election result, there are as many as 1000 odd UNDI ROSAK & 99% of these UNDI ROSAK was due the reason said above. Take MCA as an example, in Hulu Selangor itself there are already 8000 odd votes into BN's pocket but was spoilt in the last election due to disagreement factor within MCA itself.

Now that MCA had consolidated itself with CHUA SOI LEK's leadership, MCA is now UNITED & STRONG with most MCA voters in Hulu Selangor voting back for BN again. Based on solely on this factor, BN will automatically have at least 7000-8000 votes into their tally (this have NOT include MIC's share).

Thus, if the last election's majority was just a mere 200-300 votes...we can be assured this time round, BN will have a MINIMUM of 7000-8000 extra votes coming from the CHINESE alone to offset this previous 200 odd majority claimed last election by the Opposition. If we put it into numbers.....8000 Chinese votes from MCA members minus 300 majority votes of last election = 7700 votes for the BN. This of course had NOT include MIC's share of which I predict will add on another +/- 1000 odds.

As such, I expect BN to win by a rather SLIM majority of NOT EXCEEDING 2000 votes. Well, of course I will be EXTREMELY DELIGHTED to see BN proving me wrong by obtaining an excellent 5000 majority votes & above.

All these at the moment merely remains SPECULATION & no Political Analysts will DARE to argue my points. Just let see how things will end up in less than 4 hours from now....

It's either YOU BETUL or I BETUL.......Good Luck!!!

bennyloh said...


HIS RIGHTEOU$NE$$ GIVES HIM AN EDGE

Justin Choo said...

"HIS RIGHTEOU$NE$$ GIVES HIM AN EDGE"

But not morality, shame on him @ http://blackandwhite999.blogspot.com/2010/04/shame-on-you.html

TOKZ said...

My COMMENT/PREDICTION posted at 5:48PM is indeed CORRECT & PRECISE.

I DON'T need to be RPK or even any so-called POLITICAL ANALYSTS who spent MILLIONS to learn Politics overseas.

My WISDOM & INSTINCT speaks for itself!!!

Call me GOD OF POLITICS!!!

Anonymous said...

TQ to Zahid Ibrahim for carrying the PAKATAN Battle flag!!!
It is not easy to go against the BN with full support of government machinery. Everyone knows that and the fact of getting 20 over thousands vote is not an easy job!!!
I was in Hulu Selangor for the whole campaigning weeks as I was raised there and let me tell you that with all the BN resources, it is unbelievable and yet it happened that PAKATAN still garnered 20k over votes. So the future is bright and a little bit more effort on the awareness campaign PAKATAN will be in PUTRAJAYA.
Keep the spirit alive brother.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes the people will have to fall flat to get up to new life.
And BN will see to that this country will fall flat - economically, socially and morally.
Just we will rise from the ashes the hard way.
Malaysians vote with their feet not with their brains.

Chong Kok Wai said...

it shows once again Money Talks Bullshit Walks

Anonymous said...

Hulu's election shows profoundly:
1.Najib's persistency.Just like Perak.If he wants to win and take it, he will go out of his means to ensure victory!Selangor state is next.
2.Why high profile PKR man lost to a newcomer in politics? My bet is that KKB have been badly neglected by PKR after the last election.
3.It is a good wake up call to the present PKR YBs.You will be next to go come the next GE if you ignore your constituency!

Observer said...

I guess the reasons why PKR lost were as follow :1)The area is mostly rural and the people want development which BN tackled precisely.2)PKR did not stress on this point(development-probably lack of fund).3)The PKR candidate is quite unknown to the rural folks-this is a minus point.4)The piecemeal campaign works by the component parties of PKR.

Nehemiah said...

PKR is lucky to have minimised the loss to 1,725 votes, which represents only 3.6% of the total votes.

Apart from the monetary handouts that were conditional on voters voting for BN, which could have swung 1,000 votes or 2% to BN, I can find some solid reasons why PKR and Zaid could not convincingly swing the voters in their favour:

1. Constant harping on the APCO issue by Anwar Ibrahim. It is not relevant to Hulu Selangor and also the nation although a case can be made that the US$23m is tax payers money. It is as if Anwar and the PR coaltion were waiting for a big fish issue to drop from the sky for them to raise up as an election issue.

2. When you want to win rural votes, be careful to select someone they can identify with. Zaid is more of an urban success story. If he was a kampung boy to riches story, there was little meat to chew on.

3. PKR did not respond strongly to the character assasination of drinking alcohol. So what if Hishmamuddin or other members of cabinet drank in the past? They are not standing for election in Hulu Selangorlah.

3. The New Economic Model, even if it is a PR ploy, was good PR for BN. The Opposition could not counter with a simple counter punch but instead responded with several disagreements with the thick report. Fence sitters throughout the nation are still waiting for the NEM Part II and may be willing to give the benefit of the doubt until then.

4. As far as the Indian voters were concerned, Kamalanathan was the underdog (overlooked by Samy, mocked by the Opposition for kissing hands, etc). The truth about his university degree is also contentious and inconclusive

5. Is the name of the game among Islamic conservatives still: who is a better Jew basher? Anwar seemed to have gone overboard by calling the head of APCO a Jew. Wonder what the Christian Malaysians thought about that when majority of them love the Jewish people. We know that God hates and judges countries that condemn the nation/people He loves.

So my conclusion is: the long-term strategy of Pakatan Rakyat may be commendable but the tactics displayed in this by-election are just too weak and sometimes irrelevant to certain quarters of Msians.

Apart from some soul-searching, Pakatan Rakyat needs a big rebranding push and hire some smart socio-economists in their team.

Anonymous said...

Its ok to have lost. We are not disappointed because the BN/UMNO has lavished M$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to buy the rakyat votes.
Zaid/PKR will bounce back and kick these unethical and corrupted BN politicians and their rich cronies.
We will be back.

Anonymous said...

The BN win solely by Rosmah factor.
The 900 odd vote returned to BN also because Samy Vellu did not insist in having his deputy as candidate. Umno leader had make a good choice for Kamalnathan and Rosmah had won the heart of many ladies vote. The PKR had not being able to convince the 700 odd null vote but that is the best they are able to do at the moment.

Anonymous said...

Pekasa Ibrhim was very quiet before the results are out so not to anger the indians and chinese votes.Now that its over and BN won, be prepared to expect rise of the titan again calling for the destruction of all pendatang especially the indian beggars and chinese prostitues.Good luck to these people,you ask for it.

Anonymous said...

I like this blogger comments:-
MACC dare not even take actions against that 2 lame froggies from Perak and how can the rakyat expect them to take actions against Mr C4, ooppps..sorry the PM. If they do, they will all die standing, literally. The very first day it was created by that sleepy flip flop lame duck guy, it was doom for failure. With so so many obvious cases that involve corruptions and murder to name a few, they just dont have the guts or just turn a blind eye.
PKR lost, but no big deal. The voters of U. Selangor at least got milllions$$$$$$$$$ provided those rich rich politicians and their cronies kept their promises.
As a matter of fact, they should thank our great ZAID for those $millionssssssss.
PKR will bounce back much much stronger.

Anonymous said...

If more that RM100 Million was used to buy back HS, guess how much will be needed to buy back Selangor. More than RM 1 Billion. Guess where the money comes from.

It is true that Money can kill.

Anonymous said...

TOKZ, your praises of the great porn star comes to naught. the chinese in hulu selangor are not porn fans hahahaaaaa